Spatial Panel Data Analysis of Income Inequality, Poverty, and Human Development in Sumatra, Indonesia

Selamet Rahmadi

doi:10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.386

Authors

Selamet Rahmadi Universitas Jambi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.386

Keywords:

Spatial, Gini Ratio, Poverty Rate, Human Development Index

Abstract

Background: Human development disparities across Sumatra remain a regional policy concern because differences in HDI persist alongside inequality, poverty, and geographic connectivity. Previous studies have largely treated inequality and poverty as non-spatial determinants, leaving limited evidence on spatial interdependence in provincial HDI.

Objective: This study examines the effects of the Gini Ratio and poverty rate on HDI and identifies spatial dependence and clustering across Sumatra.

Methods: A balanced panel of 10 provinces for 2016–2024 (90 observations) was analyzed using panel regression with a spatial-lag component. Common Effect, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect models were compared using Chow and Hausman tests, with the Fixed Effect Model selected. A binary first-order contiguity matrix represented spatial links, and estimation was conducted in EViews.

Results: The Gini Ratio negatively and significantly affected HDI (β = -39.40173; p = 0.0001), as did poverty (β = -1.494009; p < 0.001). The spatial-lag coefficient was positive and significant (ρ = 0.022003; p = 0.0196), indicating positive spatial dependence. The model explained 82.93% of HDI variation (adjusted R² = 0.829330).

Conclusion: Inequality and poverty constrain human development, while significant spatial dependence shows that neighboring provinces are interconnected. The findings support coordinated regional policies integrating poverty reduction, income equality, and education, health, and infrastructure planning.

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