CO₂ Emission Drivers and Decoupling across Net-Zero Commitment Clusters

Yosafat Mathias Sihombing; Deni Kusumawardani

doi:10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.286

Authors

Yosafat Mathias Sihombing Universitas Airlangga
Deni Kusumawardani Universitas Airlangga

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.286

Keywords:

Carbon intensity, CO₂ emissions, Decomposition analysis, Net-zero emissions, Tapio decoupling

Abstract

Background: Progress toward net-zero emissions requires evidence of whether economic growth is becoming less carbon-intensive across countries with different levels of net-zero commitment.

Objective: This study identified the main drivers of changes in CO₂ emissions and compared economic-growth decoupling across net-zero-emission commitment clusters.

Methods: Secondary panel data for 27 high-emitting countries, selected from six net-zero commitment-status clusters, were analyzed for 2008–2023. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition was used to estimate the contributions of economic activity, population, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and the energy mix; Tapio analysis was used to classify emission–growth decoupling before and after the Paris Agreement.

Results: Economic activity and population were the principal drivers of emissions, whereas improvements in energy and carbon intensity generally offset part of the increase. Commitment clusters with targets embedded in law or policy documents showed more stable decoupling outcomes than declaration and proposed clusters; only Gabon, in the achieved cluster, reached strong decoupling in the post-Paris period.

Conclusion: Integrating LMDI and Tapio analyses shows that the credibility and institutionalization of net-zero commitments are associated with more stable decoupling patterns, while improvements in efficiency and decarbonization remain essential for offsetting growth-related emissions.

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