Economic Feasibility & Carbon Emission Reduction of EV Haul Truck Implementation: A Case Study of Pongkeru Nickel Mining Concession

Dina Agustina; Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto

doi:10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.270

Authors

Dina Agustina ITB University
Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto ITB University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59261/inkubis.v8i3.270

Keywords:

Electric Vehicle Dump Truck, Nickel Mining, Discounted Cash Flow, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Financial Feasibility, Mine Hauling

Abstract

Background: Indonesia's nickel mining supports the global EV battery supply chain but relies on diesel haul trucks, causing high fuel consumption, emissions, and exposure to fuel-price volatility. Electrifying hauling can improve efficiency, reduce direct emissions, and strengthen resilience to energy-price and transition risks.

Objective: This study analyzes the economic feasibility, environmental impact, and energy-efficiency gains of replacing diesel haul trucks with EV hauling at the Pongkeru Block nickel mine, Indonesia.

Methods: A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PBP) was applied under Conservative, Base Case, and Optimistic scenarios. The scenarios were combined into a probability-weighted expected NPV. The analysis was complemented by activity-based carbon accounting, ESG-integrated valuation with carbon-price scenarios, energy-efficiency analysis, and one-way sensitivity analysis.

Results: EV hauling yields NPVs of USD 87.85, 116.99, and 138.70 million under the Conservative, Base Case, and Optimistic scenarios, respectively, versus USD 25.15, 52.57, and 85.18 million for diesel. The expected NPV is USD 112.59 million for EV versus USD 50.86 million for diesel. EV payback is two to three years versus three to five years for diesel. Direct diesel-related emissions are estimated at 142,697.48 tCO₂e over the mine life. EV hauling shows 2.1–3.2 times higher energy-conversion efficiency and 49%–65% lower input-energy requirements.

Conclusion: EV-based hauling is economically favorable across all scenarios and delivers substantial environmental and energy-efficiency benefits. Its long-term value depends on reliable electricity supply, adequate charging infrastructure, lower-carbon power sources, effective transition-risk management, and access to sustainable financing.

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